While he does great research, by writing in a popular style he does not cite the sources for his information and he undoubtedly simplifies things for his audience. Therefore, it is difficult to recognize some of the sources for his historical theories, particularly those related to the nineteenth century that are part of the centerpiece of his arguments on U. It should be noted that he is not a historian by trade or education, though obviously history influences his writing and geopolitical theory.
That said, readers are encouraged to delve deeper into the historical eras he is discussing. The overarching thesis of the book is that Friedman believes that these two inevitable cycles are intersecting for the first time in U. He predicts that this intersection explains the political and socioeconomic volatility that the U. Indeed, Friedman sets forth the idea that the presidential election of and the current presidential election cycle in the U.
In explaining this "opening confrontation," Friedman argues that in , Hillary Clinton "won the heartland of the technocracy [the Northeast and West Coast] and lost the heartland of the country" which he describes throughout as "the declining industrial base" and the children and grandchildren of that base. He also opines that, in the next decade, new and yet unperceived political alliances will be formed that will add to the volatility of that decade.
Further complicating the transition will be perceptions of the involvement of the federal government and unforeseen international events. Political alliances will adjust according to new realizations.
For instance, this writer has frequently argued that one reason for the continued polarization of the country is due part to the fact that extremists on the right and the left control the elective process at the earlier stages, including the primary system that Friedman targets , and thus, in recent years polarizing candidates emerge that force American centrists, whom this writer would argue make up the majority of voters nationwide, to choose between the two poles when voting.
Friedman concludes that "[how] much the United States will be ripped apart in the s will depend on the steps taken in particular sectors of American life to rectify the situation and lessen the pain on both sides of the divide. As Friedman begins to close his book, he writes that the s and this conflict of political-institutional and socioeconomic cycles will be centered upon technology and education. Since he believes that technology currently emerges from higher education and that higher education has become increasingly expensive and cost prohibitive to many Americans, especially to minorities and the children and grandchildren of the declining industrial base, this emerging conflict will center on the university.
He concludes that the solution is for higher education to adapt by clearly dividing faculty into teaching and research faculty and rewarding each similarly.
Such an adaptation suggests that there needs to be a radical realignment of institutions and their missions and probably the elimination of some universities and merging of others. Friedman continues by predicting that there will continue to be a destabilization of the American social structure. He further suggests that the "institutional and economic and social shifts will merge together in" the presidential elections of and He urges leaders in all elements of American life to consider re-thinking how they operate.
For example, higher education should create "a more realistic map of excellence. He readily admits, as should most of his readers, which he does not know or understand what that technology will be.
Explanations for the Labor Shortage Americas October 12, The current breakdown of the global supply chain threatens to change the future of Load more. Recent Articles. The Storm Before the Calm:. Learn more about books by George Friedman. Invite Dr. Friedman for a Speech or Briefing. George Friedman. George Friedman at Mauldin Economics. Horizons Discussion with George Friedman. In his fascinating presentations, Dr.
George Friedman discusses the geopolitical forces shaping the course of international affairs. His talks are customized to target the specific concerns of each audience, providing insight into how the current state of world events will affect their interests. The next years will see political powers rise and fall, but the basic matrix remains the same.
Russia and China will weaken, as Japan, Turkey, and Poland fix their internal issues and rise. The United States will maintain its position as the primary global force. The current trend of population decline in the developed world will spread globally, leading to cheaper land as demand decreases. For the first time in centuries, labor will be the expensive commodity as capital seeks to augment the shrinking workforce.
Subsequently, the main technological breakthroughs must be in medicine, making people more productive as their lives extend toward years. The ability to produce highly-educated workers from the lower levels of society will define the status of nations.
Password recovery. Xi makes his intentions clear. At a four-day Central Committee plenum that wrapped up Read more. Continue to the category. Give the Gift of Knowledge Books, reports and gift subscriptions. View Gifts. What We're Reading Continue to the category. Tensions are rising again in Northern Ireland. Over the past week, pro-British gangs twice The United States lives in a fundamentally unique geopolitical reality.
Featured Analysis. The Arab uprisings briefly resurrected the idea of Arab nationalism. Since gaining independence from the British in , Sudan has experienced only intermittent periods Cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey is intensifying.
Just a few days ago, the Ukrainian Prince Charles has announced that the U. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow will be
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